The PAN's Dilemma

Leo Zuckermann on the reasons behind the PAN's negative campaign, and where it could leave Mexico: 

In many public and private conversations priistas complain about the negative campaign that the PAN is carrying out against it. They felt that, during the first portion of the administration, they cooperated with Calderón's government; they don't understand, in this scenario, how the PAN dares to attack them with the evident support of the president. More or less, they say: "Felipe is risking July 6 to win on July 5. The attacks on the PRI are going to leave wounds that are difficult to heal. There won't be the same mood of cooperation with the president. The worst is that the PAN isn't even going to win the elections. They are putting the governability of the country at risk in exchange for nothing. 

The priistas are right: negative campaigns poison the political relationship between the parties. But if the governing party doesn't attack the opposition party that is leading the polls, it runs the risk of losing embarrassingly and, in this scenario, also risking the capacity to govern in the future. 

Obviously, the PAN has decided that the second scenario is the worst of the two. It'll be interesting to see if the PRI actually does decide to block Calderón's agenda for the sake of its lingering ill will; with the PAN still the most powerful bloc in the senate and Calderón in Los Pinos until 2012, it's not like the PRI's going to be able to advance much of an agenda alone. If they do decide to block everything coming from Los Pinos a la 2000-2006, I doubt they'll come out looking better for it.