Martha Sosa, PAN candidate for governor in Colima, says that Mexico is prepared for a female president, and Josefina Vázquez is the woman most prepared to make a run.
I asked a couple of women about this yesterday, and they basically said that they'd have no added inclination to vote for her because of her gender, which seems fair. One told me that "charisma" and "likability" are more important than gender, which I think is a feeling that you see in lots of voters. Ultimately, I think women are going to have a harder time crossing the "charisma" threshold, because politicians in Mexico who exude charisma do so via showing off their huevos and plausibly coming across as your cuate. (Fox is the best example of this.) These are stereotypical male virtues. Until "charisma" is recalibrated a bit, women are going to have an uphill battle.
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How is that different from the United States, or any other country? The idea that "machismo" (whatever it is) somehow prevents women from attaining office in Latin America doesn't hold up when you consider that Argentina, Chile, Panama, Nicaragua, and Bolivia have all elected women presidents. In Chile's last election, both front runners were women, and Paraguay's ruling party candidate in the last election was a woman. Brazil's likely next president will also be a presidenta.
But Josefina Vasquez? I don't see any support outside of a few PAN sectors. Keep an eye on Beatriz Parades especially if PRI does well in next months' elections. I know Enrique Prieto Neto is mentioned most often as the probable PRI torch-bearer in 2010, but then again, at this time during the last administration, the betting was on Santiago Creel or Marta Fox as the PAN candidate and Esther Elba Gordillo for PRI (a woman... or so she claims).
I dont think it is that different from the States, although maybe a little more pronounced. But the US has is pretty woeful in female representation as well. As far as the rest of the nations, I wasnt really following theit elections closely enough to make a comparison, nor do I have any particular knowledge of their politics. I was referring only to Mexico, and I think the numbers bear out that something is holding female pols back. Only four percent of the nation's municipalities are governed by women, and there have only been six women governors in the nation's history. I'm not sure if it's outright machismo or just different expectations for a certain political style, but Mexico is behind all those other nations you mentioned, and I don't think that's an accident.
Paredes could definitely be a possibility if she wins the nomination. I also think Vázquez has the potential to win pretty wide support, more so than most of the other possibilities on the PAN. AMLO running will make it harder for the PRI to capture votes on the left (in addition to really hurting Ebrard's chances), which they've made some noise about in the past couple of years. It's pretty wide open at this point.
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