Keys to Victory*

Leo Zuckermann gives us a list of ten things to pay attention to on July 5:

1) Will the PRI win a majority in the Chamber of Deputies?

2) Will the PRI along with the Green Party achieve a majority?

3) Will the PAN reach 168 deputies, the magic number for veto power over the budget?

4) How many deputies will AMLO have under his control?

5) How weak will Calderón be?

6) How far with the PRD fall?

7) Who will win the governor's post in Nuevo León?

8) What will the impact be of the day-care fire in Hermosillo, Sonora, which are electing a mayor and governor, respectively?

9) What will be the end result of the Iztapalapa dispute?

10) What will be the impact of the null-vote movement? (The ten points are paraphrased.)

I'd add what happens more generally in the governor's races. Of the six states electing a new executive, two are presently governed by the PAN (San Luis Potosí and Querétaro), and four by the PRI (Nuevo León, Sonora, Campeche, and Colima). I'd say that if the four-two split holds, the winner is the party that snags Nuevo León (which is neck and neck, but leaning toward the PRI). Right now, the only place that seems a better than even bet to stay with the PAN is San Luis Potosí; if the July 5th result is five down and one up, that borders on disaster at the state level, too.

*If Gancho was bankrolled by some big-time corporate cash, I'd hire Teddy Atlas or a football color guy to read this read this post as though it were his pre-fight analysis. Until then, I can only dream.