Thursday, June 25, 2009

Untrue

UN official Antonio María Costa said of the US's southern neighbor, "Mexico is an extraordinarily violent case and a situation that has no equal in the world."

That sounds depressing, but it's actually not true. If you use murder rate as your gauge, Mexico is in far better shape than almost all of Central America, Colombia, Venezuela, and Brazil, whose crime problems are caused by a combination of street gangs and drug trafficking (and, in Colombia's case, guerrillas). Experts have warned that Guatemala City is in danger of being wholly expropriated by drug traffickers in the next two years if the situation continues to worsen. So Mexico's situation is unique in the way that no two snowflakes are alike, but it's not uniquely violent.

2 comments:

MexFiles said...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe El Universal polls are by telephone. Itzapalapa -- more than elsewhere in DF perhaps -- has a low percentage of homes with land lines which would could skew the results.

pc said...

Yeah I think you're right, and any of the polls that are by landline only could be a bit off for that reason. Although I always seem to overestimate the impact of that...at least I did in 2004 with Bush-Kerry.