Shift in Sonora

In a new El Universal poll, the PAN's Guillermo Padrés has for the first time opened up a lead over his PRI rival, Alfonso Elías, in the Sonora governor's race. And it's five points. Given the size of the shift, you'd have to think that voters, rightly or wrongly, are punishing the incumbent party for the Hermosillo fire.

Another poll shows the PAN candidate up by three in the race for the governor's seat in San Luis Potosí, while the PRI candidate remains six up in Nuevo León.

Also, Mitofsky's June polling is out. It shows the PRI with a more than five-point lead (32.5 percent to 27 percent) in voter preference in the Chamber of Deputies race. When accounting for probable voters, that lead shrinks to 4.7 percent. After running the numbers, Mitofsky concludes that the PAN will likely end up with between 147 and 177 deputies, compared to a range of 210 to 234 for the PRI. When the Green Party caucus is added on, the PRI will likely be controlling somewhere between 218 and 250 votes in the lower house, or just shy of a majority. One data piece that explains the PAN's difficulties: 20.9 percent of Calderón voters in 2006 are voting for the PRI this time, while only 7.6 percent of Madrazo loyalists flipped to the PAN.