Security Polling

Mitofsky had some interesting polls on security earlier this week (as well as lots of local election polls, but more on those later). Almost three quarters of those polled say that crime has gotten worse, but, mirroring the dichotomy in Calderón's approval rating versus the nation's general level of dissatisfaction, Calderón isn't taking a lot of heat. More than 70 percent of respondents said they live in fear of a kidnapping, with a slightly higher number expressing concern about robbery. More than 70 percent said that access to drugs is relatively easy, the highest figure ever revealed in this poll. 

Despite the above, 47 percent say that the government's anti-crime operations have been a success, against only 30 percent who say they have been a failure. This figure has jumped around a far amount during Calderón's term, but 47 is about average, and marks a four-point surge since February. Just over half of those polled said that Calderón's government has done a lot to take on crime, against 48 percent that said he had done little or nothing, which is the first time the result has been in the black for Calderón, so to speak. Moreover, in the North, where insecurity is most rampant, 65 percent said that Calderón had done a lot to address crime. 

Onto the army: 80 percent of those polled expressed support for the use of the army in fighting organized crime, against 15 percent who do not. The 80 percent is actually a five-point decline since last November, perhaps a reflection of the HRW report about army abuses, or perhaps of the recent arrests of army officers for feeding information to Chapo Guzmán. Or maybe it was just a random meander. Again, support for the army is highest in the North, where drug violence is worst, and where army deployments are concentrated. Two out of every three Mexicans say they'd like to see an aggressive anti-drug operation in their town like they see elsewhere, which could be significant, but is actually a little too vague to make heads or tails of. Were only those living in cities without a significant federal presence polled? What do they mean by "an operation like those in other places"? That could be Torreón, Juárez, or Iraq.