Beyond [the weakness stemming from the PRI's superior numbers and AMLO's intransigence], we must add that on July 6 the [battle for] presidential succession kicks off. This will further weaken the leader, above all within his party. Surely we will see divisions within the PAN that today is disciplined through the figure of Calderón. The chief executive knows the history well. He himself abandoned discipline against the wishes of then-President Fox because he wanted to be the presidential candidate of the PAN when the favorite of Los Pinos was Santiago Creel. It's likely that in the coming months we will see PAN politicians who, a la Calderón, break with the president to launch their presidential campaign. In such a way, Calderón will continue losing power within his own party.I'm not convinced that Calderón will grow into a lame duck as quickly or as thoroughly as Fox did. Fox made a mistake in a) betting so openly on one specific candidate, and b) mismanaging his relationships with other PAN heavyweights throughout his term, which led to the famously undisciplined "Montessori cabinet". While Zuckermann is right about the challenges ahead for Calderón, I suspect he will manage to stay relevant in a way that Fox could not.
[Break]
Starting Monday, the PRI will have two options. One: block any reform that Calderón seeks, and with luck the bad economic situation will deepen; blame the PAN for the poverty with the hope that the electorate will vote for the PRI in 2012. Two: cooperate with the PAN to pass some reforms with the hope that they return to power in 2012; make Calderón and the PAN assume the political costs for bringing the house into order before they take control of it. Whichever of the two options, starting on July 6, the PRI will be the central political actor in this country.
Also, evidently Germán Martínez missed the gloomy predictions from Zuckermann; he sees an "avalanche of victories" coming on July 6.
3 comments:
i moved to mexico just prior to fox,,, at the time i made the statement to probably more than one person it may be good to elect a pan president,,, spread the thought around so to speak.
i have since been inclined to say i made a mistake on this call,,, one of very few mistakes ive ever made.
fox, and now calderon has done more to destroy mexico over the last,,, what,, 7 - 8 years than can really be imagined,,,
the ongoing drug war, mostly a figment of the imagination of the media i would put directly on their shoulders.
the faster the pan can be ousted i would think would be best for all.
i kinda rooted for fox,,, being new to mexico and unaware,
altho not being a voter, i went to see obrador twice, and this being in the midst of difficult times,, drug war wise,, was impressed with his speaking in public oblivious to any would be dangers..
calderon on the other hand seemed to conduct his campaign behind closed doors with only a select few invited to attend,
me, not being one of the select few never saw him.
there is no way i could ever be made to believe calderon was elected by the people...
hahaha,, you know what?? i dont even recall a pri candidate during the last presidential election,, but then ive slept since then.
Years ago, I first heard the phrase "consensus capitalism" when trying to come up with a term to describe what was then "the Mexican system" -- quasi socialist, quasi capitalist -- that prevailed in the pre-NAFTA era.
Consensus also applied politically to the PRI up until the mid-1980s. PRI is as fractious as PRD or PAN, though lately, they've been much more successful in turning themselves around and creating a disciplined national organization.
If I had to use U.S. analogies, PAN is the Republican Party.. social conservatives, fascists (at least here in Mexico... maybe "white supremacists" in the U.S.) as well as ordinary decent capitalists. The working class slobs who would vote for PAN (or the Republicans) for "moral" reasons eventually are being disappointed, and the capitalists are annoyed with the religious and cultural bigots... and both recognize on some level that the racist loons are a threat to them both.
PRD... imaging Jesse Jackson and Ross Perot in the same room. It started as a "reformist" wing of the PRI, with the addition of the further left parties frozen out of the PRI when it was carved out of the PRM in the 1940s.
I don't see Mexico returning to the days when there was PRI, PRI, PRI and a few other guys... but we might see a return to the days when PRI could create a political stability and predictability, while shifting from right to left and back again.. this time by forming legislative partnerships with what will be sizable opposition parties.
I don't see the PRI becoming a dominant party either, the electorate is too divided and there's too much latent hostility. Maybe in 15 or 20 years when memories of their time in power are lot hazier, but then again virtually anything is possible in 20 years. The PRD comparison is right, but I don't see much of a working class, Thomas Frank vote for the PAN. I may be wrong, but I think the absence of it is why the PAN doesn't have anywhere near the same support that the GOP has, even this end-of-days era for the Republicans.
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