Beyond [the weakness stemming from the PRI's superior numbers and AMLO's intransigence], we must add that on July 6 the [battle for] presidential succession kicks off. This will further weaken the leader, above all within his party. Surely we will see divisions within the PAN that today is disciplined through the figure of Calderón. The chief executive knows the history well. He himself abandoned discipline against the wishes of then-President Fox because he wanted to be the presidential candidate of the PAN when the favorite of Los Pinos was Santiago Creel. It's likely that in the coming months we will see PAN politicians who, a la Calderón, break with the president to launch their presidential campaign. In such a way, Calderón will continue losing power within his own party.I'm not convinced that Calderón will grow into a lame duck as quickly or as thoroughly as Fox did. Fox made a mistake in a) betting so openly on one specific candidate, and b) mismanaging his relationships with other PAN heavyweights throughout his term, which led to the famously undisciplined "Montessori cabinet". While Zuckermann is right about the challenges ahead for Calderón, I suspect he will manage to stay relevant in a way that Fox could not.
Starting Monday, the PRI will have two options. One: block any reform that Calderón seeks, and with luck the bad economic situation will deepen; blame the PAN for the poverty with the hope that the electorate will vote for the PRI in 2012. Two: cooperate with the PAN to pass some reforms with the hope that they return to power in 2012; make Calderón and the PAN assume the political costs for bringing the house into order before they take control of it. Whichever of the two options, starting on July 6, the PRI will be the central political actor in this country.
Also, evidently Germán Martínez missed the gloomy predictions from Zuckermann; he sees an "avalanche of victories" coming on July 6.