The US has played two consecutive meaningful games against football powers, and it is on the wrong side of a five-goal differential. And although both Italy and Brazil are world-class, neither was hitting on all cylinders coming into the Confederations Cup.
I don't think the US has gotten any worse as much as 2002 was an aberration that made American soccer fans think the team was better than it really was. Even more so than in 2002, the US is now clearly the cream of Concacaf, which really only tells us that Concacaf is very weak. Despite that, Concacaf has three guaranteed berths to the World Cup, and a chance to win a fourth in a playoff with South America's fifth-ranked squad. Given the level of talent in Concacaf, that's excessive; none of the Concacaf teams (probably the US, Costa Rica, and Mexico) are better than even-money to advance out of the first round of the World Cup, and any of them making the quarters would be akin to a historic run. At the same time, Africa has only five berths, which always leads to the exclusion of one of their traditional powers (Cameroon and Nigeria both missed out on the 2006 World Cup). Europe has 13 spots, by far the largest number, but the number of UEFA teams unquestionably better than any from Concacaf is arguably as big: Italy, Spain, Russia, England, Germany, Portugal, France, the Netherlands, and Croatia clearly are, and probably Turkey and the Czech Republic, and you could make a case for Greece and Switzerland, too. Whatever the case, the quality of play is such that Portugal and France may be left out of the 2010 World Cup.
I don't know what the solution is, because two guaranteed berths and a playoff for the third seems too small for Concacaf. Maybe the Concacaf teams could integrate their final qualifying stage with Conmebol's, and have the best seven nations make it. That way, you'd have to square off against at least some world-class teams, and you couldn't squeeze in by merely by beating up on El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago.
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4 comments:
I think you mean "berth," not "birth."
Say, are you going to be anywhere near Mexico City around August 12th?
Aaaah, that's embarrassing. Another example of how Mexico is ruining my ability to distinguish between homophones. I'm just glad it wasn't no/know. Or hear/here.
As far as DF, actually I'm moving back to the States that month, so unfortunately, I'm not going to be around. Enjoy the game though. I'm willing to make plans to be in Azteca for the 2014 qualifying.
Where will you be moving to? I'm a bit disappointed; this blog is great.
Thanks! I'm moving to Washington DC for a couple of years, and then at some point I'll probably be back. In some form, I'll keep Gancho going, though it remains to be seen how much it'll suffer from the distance.
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