Sunday Polling

According to Mitofsky's May polling, the PRI has a narrow lead over the PAN of 34 to 31 percent support from the likely voters. This is slightly closer than the last few months' results from Mitosfky, as well as other firms.

The Mitofsky plugs the likely results into Mexico's mixed proportional/direct system of system, and finds that the possibility of a PRI whitewash in the July elections seems decreasingly likely: their most likely scenario shows the PRI with somewhere between 210 and 238 deputies, the PAN with 148 to 178, and the PRD with a range of 80 to 93 legislators. 

Also, last week GEA-ISA published a poll that placed the PAN in first place with 40 percent support from those polled. The reason for the PAN's surge is that erstwhile undecideds are deciding--for the PAN. Because it's projected to win a greater number of districts, the PRI remains the likely leading party come July in the GEA-ISA's scenario, but these two polls nonetheless give the PAN some reason for optimism.