Still Popular, Somehow

Leo Zuckermann chews on Felipe Calderón continued popularity:

[I]n the midst of a similar crisis, Zedillo's approval rate was at 36 percent while that of Calderón is almost double. What explains the difference? Two things, it would seem.

First off, in contrast to 1995, people understand that the present crisis came from the outside. It is due, in particular, to the US recession. According to a February poll from Parametría, only 30 percent of Mexicans think that the government generated the present economic hardships. The president has managed, with effective communication, to avoid people's blame for the economic crisis. "He's not responsible. He's only trying to resolve it." That amounts to a huge difference with what happened in '95. In those days, the great majority of Mexicans thought that crisis had been caused by the Salinas and Zedillo governments. Which explains the abysmal popularity of the president at that moment.

But there's a second factor. Calderón has managed to make the war against organized crime the predominant theme in the media. The economic crisis has passed to the second page. Coincidentally combating crime is where Mexicans are most approving of the president's tenure. It is, without a doubt, the issue which has most contributed to the present presidential popularity. There exists the idea that this leader is joining a fight that had been delayed. In contrast to Zedillo, Calderón found an issue that has allowed him to separate himself from the bad economic news.

All of that brings us to the electoral issue. It's well known that the popularity of the president doesn't automatically translate into votes for the governing party. According to the most recent May poll from Consulta-Mitofsky, 34 percent of the electorate intends to vote for the PAN in the upcoming elections for deputy. It's not a bad figure if you take into account the dimension of the economic crisis through which we are living. With a drop of 8.2 of the GDP, the most logical thing would be to see a more downtrodden PAN. But, although the party isn't improving, it also hasn't dropped conspicuously. It has remained at an acceptable level. And I think the popularity of the president has helped the PAN to be there. Because let's imagine where the party would be if Calderón had an approval rate of 36 percent like Zedillo's in '95.

Even though high presidential popularity doesn't generate votes in favor of the governing party, a low popularity does scare voters away from the party. Just ask the Republicans how Bush's popularity affected them in the most recent elections in the United States.

Point two seems correct to me, which is more reason to doubt Crespo's suggestion that organized crime won't play much of a role in the PAN's 2012 campaign.