Immigrants in the Crisis

BBVA's Mexico chief had some interesting things to say about Mexican immigrants (and their children and grandchildren) in the US and the economic crisis. First, he predicted that few immigrants would be coming back to Mexico, because as bad as the employment situation is in the States, it's not likely to be better in Mexico. He also said remittances are going to off 15 percent for the year, but it won't be a big deal for a lot of families who receive them because it will be offset by the decline in the peso. 

That last point is actually kind of misleading, because a 15 percent drop across the board doesn't mean that every family's remittances will drop by that figure. Instead, a more likely scenario is that 80 percent of remittance recipients will suffer only a mild decline if they do at all, while the remaining 20 will see their remittance income plummet.

For its part, the PRI faction of the Chamber of Deputies estimates that remittances will drop by 20 percent this year, and that the economic damage will be concentrated in states whose migration statistics have shot up only in recent years: Guerrero, Mexico State, Hidalgo, and Chiapas.