Priorities for 2010

Between anticipating the end of the year, picking apart Crespo's analysis of Calderón's goals, and reading Boz's recent posts on Mexico, now seems like a logical time to address Mexico's big-picture problems. One point Boz has made on a couple of occasions this year is that Calderón, despite all the hullaballoo about the army, hasn't offered any indication of what his strategy is. The use of the army is a very visible tactic, but to what end, in what way, and with what specific short- and long-term objective are the troops being deployed?

A related element that is conspicuously absent in Mexico is a "Calderón Doctrine", of the sort that US presidents usually lay out in their first year in office. Presidential foreign-policy doctrines are inevitably pretentious (ending tyranny in our world comes to mind) and often contradict reality (how do you square an emphasis on democracy with US support for Egypt?), but they do offer a window into a president's strategic priorities, something that is lacking in Mexico. Calderón could go a long way toward filling that void with a speech laying out his security priorities. Mine would be the following:

1) Eliminating the groups that threaten the state, either by corruption or assassination. This cannot just be about arresting the kingpins or attacking the lower level operators and financial networks, but both.

2) Eliminating groups that threaten free society. This requires placing more emphasis on combating groups whose revenue is based more extortion and kidnapping than drugs.

3) Making Mexico’s most violent places safer.

4) Reducing the consumption of drugs in Mexico, and the flow of drugs northward.

The message for criminals would be, don't mess with the state, don't mess with civilians, and you have a better chance of surviving. Building on the assumption as long as the US has a drug prohibition, Mexico will have organized crime, the best-case scenario ten years from now is a nation in which the gangs are less violent, more defensive, and well aware of their relative weakness compared to the government. Of course, without dramatically reducing impunity, that message loses a lot of its force, and a dramatic improvement in the capacity and honesty of the police is a prerequisite.

Of course this is not comprehensive, and perhaps some radical overhaul, stemming from an embarrassing oversight, is required; in any event, I'd welcome anyone's comments on the above list.

Incidentally, I'm heading out of town, so that's all for 2009. I extend a sincere thanks to everyone who read Gancho this year, and I look forward to seeing you all in 2010. Happy Holidays!