The Left in 2012

José Antonio Crespo weighs the options for the left in 2012:

...I imagine three basic scenarios: 1) AMLO becomes the only candidate for the left --at the margin of his popularity-- but with little chance of attracting sufficient moderate voters to win; 2) Before AMLO's refusal to cede the candidacy, there is a rupture in teh left, which presents two candidates and guarantees its defeat; 3) AMLO cedes the candidacy to a figure more acceptable and trustworthy for the moderate electorate and allows the left to become a real governing option. That seems to be Marcelo Ebrard's bet, judging from how he handled the Juanito case. The most likely scenario, however, seems to me to be the first.