Governmental Reaction to Beltrán Leyva's Death

Arturo Chávez Chávez predicts that the Arturo Beltrán Leyva's death will likely bring more violence, as erstwhile competitors, partners, and subordinates try to fill the space he occupied. That is certainly logical, but I don't think it's necessarily a given. Osiel Cárdenas's extradition didn't lead to a lot of bloodshed due to people in Tamaulipas trying to take his place, although I've read he was immensely concerned about that inevitability, and tried to set things up so there would be a smooth transition once he was out of the picture. In any event, outbreaks of violence are certainly a good bet, but the drug trade confounds logic on a regular basis.

Colombia's National Police boss says that his death will weaken the nexus between Colombian and Mexican traffickers. It's virtually impossible to know what will be the impact of one end of that relationship disappearing, but I've read about something similar happening, with, once more, Osiel Cárdenas. The Zetas that took over didn't have the relationship with Cárdenas's Colombian suppliers, the theory goes, so they branched out into other enterprises like kidnapping and extortion, which was really bad news for Mexican society.

Of course, these suppositions are built on threads of logic rather than solid facts, so a grain of salt is in order.