There are various facts that predict the defeat of the PRI in Oaxaca, and auger the victory of the opposition coalition headed by Gabino Cué. Not only because of the eight polls that give a lead to the candidate of the PAN, PRD, PT, and Convergencia, but also because of the way that Governor Ulises Ruiz is reacting: without scruples, not to mention a minimum respect for the law. A very interesting case of political cynicism turns a preview of a defeat and not of impunity.The governor of Oaxaca abandoned --now entirely-- the chore of government and he has adopted the role of campaign coordinator for his friend and partner Eviel Pérez Magaña, not only because he heads the media PR --particularly in the Oaxacan radio and TV-- but because he has used public funds from the program "Mobil units" to set up the electoral structure. He has the electoral agencies under his control, he established the majority of the municipal councils, and and he personally carries dirty war operations such as trying to undermine the opposition coalition with actions of intimidation, blackmail, and co-opting.Ruiz took to the phone last week and called various pre-candidates that didn't obtain their nomination with the coalition to offer them all sorts of enticements, including registering their candidacies with other parties, such as Panal. Without blushing he dared to talk to various PAN pre-candidates to offer them "whatever they wanted". And he outdid himself when he called our candidate for deputy in District XV of Huajapan de León, Luis de Guadalupe Martínez, to convince him to switch to his side.
Frankly, although unethical and illegal, much of this seems like par for the course for Ruiz. Obviously no one should break the law and Ruiz has a track record that provokes a great deal of suspicion, but one reason that Mexican elections in general are so fraught with claims of wrongdoing is the unrealistic expectation that the incumbents stay above the fray.
For what its worth, the PRI is making similar accusations of the PAN.