Election Tea Leaves

After lamenting his bad luck in having a column published on the same day as the Mexico-South Africa game, Macario Schettino says that the elections on July 5, at which point the national attention may still be occupied by a historic Tri run in the World Cup, could be fundamental in determining the presidential nominees:

The PRI assures us that it will win the 12 gubernatorial elections, although that seems more than anything a campaign promise. It will surely win the majority. In eight of them another party has never governed, this is a PRI year.

But the important thing, on a national level, is how these elections facilitate or complicated candidacies. For example, in the PRI it seems that the decision now centers on Enrique Peña Nieto and Manlio Fabio Beltrones. The latter has gained ground inside the PRI in recent days, and if he soon manages to place an ally in Beatriz Paredes' position, all of the media popularity of Peña Nieto will be useless. In good measure, this depends on the election in Oaxaca. Ulises Ruiz won't be able to aspire to the presidency of his party if he doesn't win the election. Even if he does win it, but in a very doubtful manner, his future is at risk. And with it, that of a broad political project.