Monday, March 7, 2011

The PRD in 2012

According to Mitofsky, two-thirds of perredistas prefer AMLO to Ebrard with regard to the 2012 presidential race, with barely a quarter leaning toward Ebrard. However, AMLO is the candidate with the largest negative spread among any of the hopefuls in any party, and Ebrard scores better among the population at large. Both of them, therefore, have a legitimate claim to being better positioned for 2012, the amorphous status that is supposed to determine which of the two will step aside and which will run. Assuming the poll is legit, I can't conceive of any scenario in which AMLO steps aside with two-thirds of the party's support (nor can you blame him), which, absent a sea change (which seems unlikely given that both Ebrard and AMLO are such known quantities) in leftist sympathies, means that either the Ebrard jumps off or the left is divided. Either way, it is very hard to envision a victorious left in 2012.

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