Monday, March 14, 2011

AMLO's Unwillingness to Learn

Buendía y Laredo estimate that AMLO has some 7.6 million supporters. That surely represents a significant following, more than likely enough to win the PRD nomination, but it alone falls far short of what will be required to win the general election. They also say that his best case scenario is 32 percent of the vote, equal to the figure they attribute to Ebrard.

Aguachile mentioned "political learning" in a recent post about AMLO, specifically with regard to his refusal to engage in it. Examples of this abound, such as his comparison of the PRI's return to Santa Anna:
If the PRI returns it will be the ruin of the country, because they will sell everything, they are capable of selling even the Palacio Nacional.
Very strong, though not atypical, stuff from AMLO. (Compare it for a second to the "peligro para México" that so irritated el Peje five years ago.) All of this demonstrates zero sense of proportion regarding his adversaries, and zero understanding of what his biggest drawback is to voters. Politicians who lose a tough race but want to continue their career have a couple of choices: they can attribute the loss to flaws their the candidacy, take the appropriate steps to address them, and appear before the electorate as with a brand new image; or they can chalk it up circumstances, and double down on the same old tactics. It's pretty clear what lessons AMLO took from 2006, and it's equally clear, at least to me, where that is going to take him.

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