As Scott Stewart at STRATFOR points out, it's very unlikely. Hezbollah, as Stewart rightly emphasizes, is no longer a young hothead looking to make a name for itself. Senior Hezbollah leaders are often "influential politicians and wealthy businessmen," Stewart writes. Hezbollah sees the US as a business office, not a foxhole. And besides, if Hezbollah did attack the US, it would make itself (and Iran) a military target. And after seeing the devastation in Iraq, that's likely not something it's pursuing. "Hezbollah could conduct attacks in the United States, but it would pay a terrible price for doing so, and it does not appear that it is willing to pay that price," Stewart writes. "Hezbollah leadership may be radical, but it is not irrational."
This is fortunate for us Americans, as Hezbollah is infinitely better equipped and better trained than al Qaeda and—according to this January CRS report (PDF)—the Mexican government's counterintelligence operations are underfunded and stretched thin by the Calderon's drug war. Hezbollah doesn't seem intent on waging war against the US from across the Mexican border. Instead, its mission seems to be to use the cartels' reign in Mexico to increase the year's profits and, more significantly, to leverage its presence in Mexico as a deterrent to US attacks on Iran.
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Hezbollah and Mexico
What to make of the recent reports of Hezbollah agents found in Mexico? Here's an opinion from Stratfor and Mother Jones: