Friday, February 20, 2009

He's Back!

Actually, they're back: Kelly Pavlik and Miguel Cotto both rebound from devastating first losses on Saturday night, the former against Lagunero Marco Antonio Rubio and the latter against Brit Michael Jennings. While Pavlik is a likeable American with the potential to be a mainstream star, I like Rubio's style and I know his brother, so I wouldn't be crushed at seeing an upset. But unless Pavlik's confidence is totally shot or he's having a hard time getting down to 160, I don't see how he loses this. Rubio is a big puncher, but he's a limited mover who won't be able to spin Pavlik and kill him with combinations the way Bernard Hopkins did. Rubio's style has a lot in common with guys like Zertuche and Miranda, who were both tailor-made for Pavlik. It's a perfect rebound fight for Pavlik: a tough guy who will trade but won't frustrate Pavlik. I like Pavlik to win with a late knockout before a rowdy home crowd.

As for Cotto, his knockout loss to Margarito was more physically brutal than Pavlik's decision loss to Hopkins, but he was far more competitive up until he ran out of gas (and the accumulation of plastered punches?), and the Margarito suspension has to give him an added shot of confidence. I don't know much about Jennings, other than that he's not a world beater. I think Cotto will come out with the vintage meat-and-potatoes style he showed off coming up: lots of body work, not much flipping to the southpaw stance, and a solid knockout in the middle rounds.

Welcome back to the winner's circle, boys!

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