AMLO in the Times

Andrés Manuel López Obrador scored a profile in the New York Times earlier this week, with the point being that the economic crisis could vault him back into a position of heightened relevance. This initially struck me as an odd time to be writing positively about AMLO, given that he doesn't really have a home and all of the parties that could claim his movement are going to get smashed come summer, but it could be prescient. If the American recession results in a long-term contraction in Mexico, AMLO will likely win new (or erstwhile) devotees. Still, I think the article underestimates a couple of things: first, absent gross mismanagement, Mexicans are likely to be somewhat forgiving of Felipe Calderón. The public knows that this isn't a problem whose genesis is Mexican, and its anger won't be immediately directed toward Mexican leaders unless there is some further crisis that hits Mexico more directly, like a debt crisis or a round of bank defaults.

Second, while the circumstances will be tilting back toward López Obrador, that can only make up for so much of his decline in the public's esteem. His behavior in 2006 permanently poisoned his image as a reasonable democrat, and he's not going to win over many of the people who left him because they rejected his radical tactics.

Lastly, I can't help but feel that AMLO is optimistic about an economic disaster the way Dick Cheney and Marc Thiessen seem to be hoping for a terrorist attack during a Democratic administration.