Numbers from Zuckermann

Leo Zuckermann peppers today's column with lots of interesting poll numbers. Among them:

1) Eight-four percent of respondents say that the economy is worse now than a year ago, and 74 percent say that the coming year will be still worse. Despite Mexico's well documented security problems, 65 percent say that factors related to the economy is the nation's principal problem right now.

2) Calderón's personal approval is impervious to the above data. It stood at 62 percent in December, and improved to 66 percent in January.

3) The PRD enjoys only 16 percent of the respondents' support, and 44 percent said they'd never vote for the PRD. Were they held today, the PRI would win the elections with the support of 44 percent of the electorate, compared to 34 percent for the PAN. This is right in the middle of the polling schism between the surveys from Buendía y Laredo and El Universal.

The following finding doesn't appear in the column, but it is part of the same polling from Consulta Mitofsky: 56 percent of the country is on the wrong track, against 37 who think it is on the right track. How does that square with the 65 percent of the poll who say that Calderón is doing a good job?

Calderón bathes himself in Teflon. It's been true throughout his two-plus years in office, but even more pronounced lately. Since November, the economic news has been steadily poor, and the coverage of Calderón himself has been correspondingly harsh, especially in regard to his optimism. Plus, there's been the scandal of Operation Clean-up, and the steady hum of drug violence, such as the assassination of General Tello a few days ago. There's also been a welter of little newsworthy episodes, like Slim's criticism and Calderón's weird interview with Ernesto Zedillo, which have not shined particularly well on the president. In spite of all this, and the corresponding pessimism about the country's future, Calderón is as popular as ever. Part of this is that the Mexican public is savvy enough to recognize that the two big problems facing the nation --public security and economic woes-- are problems that Calderón's inherited rather than caused, and they still have a high opinion of his competence. Nonetheless, you'd expect at least some of the bad news to rub off on him.