Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Theories

I tend to read Andres Oppenheimer's columns four or five at a time every few weeks, so I'm late in coming across this oddity: George Friedman of the security analysis firm Stratfor has written a book that envisions a 21st century war between Mexico and the US, among other episodes unforeseen by most of humanity. Stratfor jumped aboard the failed-state bandwagon rather early, so Friedman's doomsday predictions should be taken with a sizable grain of salt. But while I think the chances of a Mexico-US war are slimmer than my reaching 27 wins in the Streak for Cash (only 23 to go!), the causes upon which Friedman is basing his prediction are worth pondering*:
Mexico will become one of the world's 10 largest economies in coming decades. By around the middle of the century, there will inevitably be a rise in Mexican nationalism, at a time when a tremendous U.S. labor shortage will result in a massive flow of Mexicans -- invited by Washington, with financial incentives -- into territories occupied by the United States in the 19th century. This combination will result in ''a high degree of tension, if not war,'' he said.
An idiosyncratic and counter-productive strain of nationalism has coursed through Mexico's politics for most of the past century, and it seems more likely that said strain will become a diluted and less vital presence in Mexico in the decades to come, as has been the case in the past couple of decades. Furthermore, today's twentysomethings are more internationalist than their predecessors, and their nationalism will be ever more cosmetic, not a basis for foreign policy. All of this mitigates against the possibility of war. Nonetheless, interesting to ponder.

*Yes, I jacked Oppenheimer's reaction. It's still mine, however, even if it isn't original.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

The book is a little crazy, but highly entertaining. I'm tempted to fisk the scenario. The good thing about it, though, is that it tries to understand a future in which Mexico becomes as rich as the United States over the lifetime of somebody born today, rather than sliding into chaos or remaining the poor and somewhat disorderly place it is today.

That's worth getting into the discourse, even if the book itself goes off the rails.

pc said...

Hey Noel,

I've not read the book, but the column makes it sound interesting. I couldn't agree more on the point of Mexico growing into a major economic power. When people who don't follow the country here about, for instance, the Goldman-Sachs report that said it'd become the fifth largest economy in 2050 (or something like that), they are always floored. There's just not much popular awareness of that.