Mexico will become one of the world's 10 largest economies in coming decades. By around the middle of the century, there will inevitably be a rise in Mexican nationalism, at a time when a tremendous U.S. labor shortage will result in a massive flow of Mexicans -- invited by Washington, with financial incentives -- into territories occupied by the United States in the 19th century. This combination will result in ''a high degree of tension, if not war,'' he said.An idiosyncratic and counter-productive strain of nationalism has coursed through Mexico's politics for most of the past century, and it seems more likely that said strain will become a diluted and less vital presence in Mexico in the decades to come, as has been the case in the past couple of decades. Furthermore, today's twentysomethings are more internationalist than their predecessors, and their nationalism will be ever more cosmetic, not a basis for foreign policy. All of this mitigates against the possibility of war. Nonetheless, interesting to ponder.
*Yes, I jacked Oppenheimer's reaction. It's still mine, however, even if it isn't original.
2 comments:
The book is a little crazy, but highly entertaining. I'm tempted to fisk the scenario. The good thing about it, though, is that it tries to understand a future in which Mexico becomes as rich as the United States over the lifetime of somebody born today, rather than sliding into chaos or remaining the poor and somewhat disorderly place it is today.
That's worth getting into the discourse, even if the book itself goes off the rails.
Hey Noel,
I've not read the book, but the column makes it sound interesting. I couldn't agree more on the point of Mexico growing into a major economic power. When people who don't follow the country here about, for instance, the Goldman-Sachs report that said it'd become the fifth largest economy in 2050 (or something like that), they are always floored. There's just not much popular awareness of that.
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