Conclusion

Based on the cockpit conversations, the best explanation for the cause of the plane crash on November 4 is pilot error in reacting to turbulence. Evidently, the pilot was not expert in the Learjet he captained, and was questioning and deferring to the copilot throughout the dialogue that the government has released. You can find links to the transcript and even the audio here (though I can't bring myself to listen to the tape). Kudos to the government for handling this as cleanly and as transparently as possible. It won't be enough to tamp down every conspiracy theory, but at least it won't actively erode Calderón's credibility among the more informed and reasonable voters.