Fernández Menéndez Part 2

On Obama:

Mexican diplomacy has played the elections very well, keeping fluid contact with both candidates and without betting publicly on either. But Obama doesn't know Mexico nor does he have a clear idea of the American relationship with this country: maybe he's acquired it in the campaign, but, if that's the case, he hasn't demonstrated it. Probably the most worrying piece of information (although it was also Clinton's position in '92, which he radically revised when he got to the White House) is his decision to reconsider the FTA with Mexico and Canada, echoing the most conservative business and union positions. It would be a grave mistake, not because there aren't chapters of Nafta that shouldn't be analyzed 15 years after its implementation, even deepening it wouldn't be in error, but trying to backtrack will provoke an avalanche that will eventually be impossible to contain. I don't think that Obama, if he wins, will implement a such decision, and I think that, if just for generational reasons, he will be able to communicate well with Felipe Calderón. But that doesn't stop the speculation, because we don't know with enough certainty where he will go.

For what it's worth, I don't put any stock in Obama's rhetoric about renegotiating Nafta. A radical alteration in American trade policy would fly in the face of his pragmatic character and his equally pragmatic economic advisors, and he can find other ways to nod in the direction of one of his key constituencies (the unions) without spitting in the face of another (Latinos).