Thursday, April 22, 2010

Yet More States Where the PRI Leads

In Puebla, one of the foremost targets of the PAN-PRD alliance, and where the outgoing PRI boss is probably the most disgraceful politician in the nation, the PRI's man leads the PAN and PRD candidate by a margin of 35.5 to 26.4.

In Durango, where there is also an alliance, the PRI's Jorge Herrera leads the PAN/PRD's José Rosas Aispuro by almost 20 points. In Tlaxcala, the PRI's Mariano González holds a 3.5 point advantage over Adriana Dávila of the PAN and the PRD.

In Tamaulipas, where there is no alliance and where the PRI has long been both supreme and closely linked to drug gangs, the PAN candidate has an almost 20-point deficit.

In Zacatecas, where there is no PAN-PRD alliance, the PRI candidate enjoys 25 percent voters support, compared to 17 for the PRD and 16 for the PAN. Presumably the PRD wasn't interested in an alliance in Zacatecas because it's long been the strongest party there, but it's ironic how in the states where it could actually bring success the two parties eschewed collaboration. In essence, it looks at this point as though the PAN and PRD underestimated the size of the PRI's advantage, judging that with an alliance they would be able to compete in states where even together they look overwhelmed, and thinking that an alliance wouldn't be necessary to win in states where in fact it would.

I should add that all of the polls to which I've linked to in recent days have come from the same pollster, and said pollster was attacked by a panista for being a PRI partisan after one of them. Nonetheless, we have nine gubernatorial polls (out of twelve states with governor's races), and the PRI is ahead in each of them. Not only that, but it is ahead by double digits in five of the nine, and enjoys a lead of more than five points in seven races. Of course, until we start seeing competing polls we should take this with a grain of salt, and a lot can change in the two and a half months until election day. Furthermore, nine of these entities are PRI states to begin with (including eight for whom we've seen polling), so a relatively mild swing in the polls could harbor a net gain for the non-PRI; nonetheless, the PRI's gains in 2009 are looking less and less like a one-off event.

Update: In Hidalgo, Mitofsky pegs the PAN- and the PRD-supported Xochitl Gálvez (one of the highest profile alliance candidates) at 31 percent support, 20 points behind her PRI rival Francisco Olvera Ruiz. In Sinaloa, the PRI has a three-point edge with Jesús Vizcarra over the PAN-PRD's Mario López.

No comments: