Tuesday, April 27, 2010

The PRI Surges in Mexico City

As we have mentioned many times over the course of the past year or so, the PRI is making political hay around the nation, though one area has been conspicuously absent from their list of triumphs: Mexico City. The nation's capital is primarily a PRD town, and in the enclaves where the PRD isn't trusted, it's the PAN that dominates. The PRI, however, has the support you might expect a Red Sox fan to enjoy in the Bronx. But a new poll from Buendía & Laredo shows that the PRI's fortunes in Mexico City may be changing:
In party preference, without naming any possible candidates, the PRD leads the sympathies with 30 percent support, followed by the PRI (21 percent). The PAN, second place in the last two [mayoral] contests, now occupies third place (16 percent).

With Beatriz Paredes as the candidate, the PRI could recover the nation's capital. Thanks to her positioning, she has support that exceeds that of her party by more than 12 percentage points (in different surveys her minimum support is 33 percent). She is the winner in all of the combinations analyzed here.

Jesús Ortega is the most competitive perredista with Beatriz Paredes (he obtains 30 points against with 34 for the PRI president...). In general, the possible aspirants from the PRD evaluated here obtain a level of support similar to that of the party or beneath it. Furthermore, the possible PRD candidates win all of the surveys, except when Beatriz Paredes is the PRI candidate.

In the case of the PAN, Demetrio Sodi is the most competitive aspirant with a level of support between 20 and 21 percent (slightly greater than the support of his party). If the PRI doesn't play its best card, the PRI and the PAN are basically tied in voter preference.

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