Sunday, April 11, 2010
Over the course of the past week, two dangerous, destabilizing, extra-governmental forces achieved huge wins: Duke in the NCAA and, slightly less worryingly, Chapo Guzmán in Juárez. I don't think the US has any reason to exaggerate the Chapo winning Juárez claims, so I imagine they are based on solid intelligence. But I also think throughout the past two years, the extent to which the violence in the border city was attributed to conflict between Chapo and Vicente Carrillo Fuentes was always exaggerated; much of the violence came from low-level retail dealers knocking each other off, and it remains to be seen if Chapo taking hold of the city (assuming that's correct) will be able to put a lid on the anarchy stemming from hundreds of gangs running wild. Hopefully violence will drop in Juárez, but if it doesn't, I don't think we should be all that surprised, nor should we conclude the US was wrong.