Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Questioning the Growth Projections

Rogelio Ramírez de la O is less than credulous about the optimistic economic numbers coming from Los Pinos:
The main reason to doubt any significant growth is that there is no internal demand to sustain it. Although it's true that external demand has improved, above all because of the rebound of automotive sales in the United States, exports are only 30 percent of the economy and furthermore include areas like tourism, which is plummeting. Or remittances, which will probably remain very weak.

The lack of demand has its origins in the employment crash of 2009. Although IMSS has revealed positive numbers in the first quarter, in reality wider official indicators reveal that the situation is urgent.
Another reason to doubt any significant growth for those of us who aren't practicing economists is that Calderón and co. have been overly optimistic about the economy at every step for the past two years.

No comments: