Thursday, April 15, 2010

Another Duarte, Another PRI Whitewash in the Offing

Yesterday we mentioned Javier Duarte's twenty-point lead in Veracruz; today, it's César Duarte's huge lead in Chihuahua over the PAN's Carlos Borruel, by a margin of 46 to 26.

I'd be interested to see a political scientist pick apart the PRI's deep reservoirs of support in Chihuahua. The PRI's José Reyes Baeza has controlled the state house since 2004. Priísta José Reyes Estrada Ferriz has run Juárez since 2007. During that time, of course, Chihuahua in general and Juárez in particular have gone from being another perennially tense though not particularly violent part of the border to being among the bloodiest political entities on the globe. Given that context, wouldn't you expect the reaction against the incumbent party to be a bit more severe? I don't think you can just point to the local PAN's hopelessness to explain; Chihuahua was one of the first regions where the PAN was the PRI's equal, and even though it has slipped since the 1980s, the PAN remains a significant force in the state. So, assuming this poll is legit, why is the PRI so far ahead? Does the steadfast support for the PRI mean that voters blame Calderón for the region's security woes, or do they make their votes based more on the president's performance on economic matters? It's a head-scratcher.

3 comments:

David said...
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David said...

César Duarte was speaker of the lower house of Congress from Sept. 2008 to Aug. 2009. He did a pretty good job of angling for the PRI gubernatorial nomination the entire time he was speaker, which is a pretty high profile position. His work then - and that of the PR staff in Congress - is surely now paying some dividends.

pc said...

Yeah the candidate definitely would seem to make a big difference in Duarte's case. I've not seen any polling for the Juarez mayor, but if it's drastically closer, I guess we can conclude that Duarte's profile is the biggest reason why the gubernatorial race is so lopsided. If it's not, though, it really is an odd phenomenon.