So, all in all, no real reason for optimism, but things don't appear to be getting worse, either.
Thursday, April 1, 2010
First-Quarter Juárez Statistics
Over the first three months of 2010, 628 people were killed in Juárez according to government figures. That represents a 38 percent increase over 2009, which is at first glance rather alarming. Yet the first quarter of 2009 includes the initial plummet in crime numbers when the army arrived in force in Juárez (the second quarter includes some of that as well); hardly anyone (relatively speaking) was killed in Juárez in March 2009. Last year's record-setting violence is more than anything a factor of the second half of the year, and the murder rate over the first three months in 2010 is significantly less than it was over the final six months of 2009. Furthermore, if you prorate the number of murders in Juárez in 2010, the total will fall short of the 2009 sum.