Monday, January 24, 2011

Who's Going to Win in Baja California Sur?

Gustavo Madero says that Humberto Moreira will start off his tenure as the head of the PRI with two big losses: one in the Guerrero governor's election next Sunday, and the second in the race for the same seat in Baja California Sur the following week. Guerrero looks to be leaning away from the PRI, but I'd not seen a huge amount of reporting or analysis on the second race. Looking around for some polling, I was astounded by the variability of results. Check out, for instance, this collection of polls. Virtually everyone has the PAN's Marcos Covarrubias Villaseñor or the PRI's Ricardo Barroso Agramont winning, but the polling results range from a 24-point lead by Covarrubias to a Barroso advantage of 14, which is to say, a nearly 40-point discrepancy in polls taken a couple of weeks apart. There's also a single poll that shows the PRD's Luis Armando Díaz, in third place in every other sample, in first, with a five-point edge over Covarrubias. In effect, who the hell knows?

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