Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Rising Confidence

Macario Schettino points out that Inegi confidence measures for consumers and producers alike are increasing:
In summary, the producers see that the economy is functioning, and although they are still not convinced that it is time to invest, they do perceive that not only are things improving, but they also have more confidence in the future than in the present.


The opinion of the producers and consumers regarding the function of the economy coincides with what we've been saying in this column since halfway through last year: it has been a good recovery. Furthermore, this process of growth hasn't stopped. The leading indicators of Inegi (the stopwatch of the economic cycle) demonstrate that we are still in a phase of expansion.
He goes on to say that despite this bit of good news, growth will be sufficient only for the creation of 400,000 to 500,000 jobs annually, or somewhere between one-third and half of what it needed. This is of a piece both with the greater optimism in opinion polls that we noted recently, as well as my comment that even with the jobs numbers being boosted by the one-off rebound from the crisis, they are still insufficient.

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