Josefina's Chances

Via Aguachile, Jorge Zepeda Patterson argues that Josefina Vázquez's gender will be an insurmountable obstacle in winning the PAN nomination for the 2012 presidential elections. Woman have, both objectively and comparatively, historically played a small role in the PAN, but I'm not convinced that it will be an insurmountable obstacle for Vázquez. Whereas in the past widespread sexism was almost certainly a driving factor for the absence of women in important posts, I imagine that today it's more a function of inertia, though there are people with sexist and misogynistic views high up in the PAN. If I'm correct, an open primary could counteract a narrow band of elite, gender-based opposition to Josefina.

More generally, one of the lessons from Obama's victory in 2008 is that the attitudes of the masses change more rapidly than we are able to perceive.