Thursday, July 8, 2010
The Inevitable Occurs
The inevitable final battle between Marcelo Ebrard and AMLO for the candidacy representing the Mexican left in 2012 seems to be on the verge of beginning. Earlier this week, with Ebrard still basking in the glow of what is perceived as a big victory for him on Sunday, AMLO said in an interview that we will look for a party to nominate him toward the end of next year. He also said that he wasn't going to wait for the polls, a reference to a previous agreement for he and Ebrard to see which candidate was better position to win the general election. Ebrard responded that the pact was not broken, although it would seem that it is. Or rather, it never really existed. The fact is, AMLO has always indicated that he was going to run, and the only way there is going to be a unified leftist candidate is if Ebrard steps aside. Otherwise, it'll be Ebrard with the PRD and AMLO with the PT and/or Convergencia, which means that probably neither will break 15 percent. AMLO, who engenders more negative feeling than anyone in Mexican politics, would need something like a miracle to win the presidency in any circumstances. Ebrard would have an uphill climb as well, but, were AMLO to sit this one out, he could certainly come out on top facing off against Beltrones and Creel.