Thursday, November 5, 2009

Scanning the PAN

After mentioning Josefina Vázquez, Fernando Gómez Mont, and Gustavo Madero, Víctor Reynoso says that perhaps the best possible PAN candidate in 2012 is someone for whom a run would be impossible:
The contrast between the indiscretion of the previous first lady and the discretion of the present one surely has made Margarita Zavala a beloved figure. Aside from her own merits. But she is on the one hand linked to the situation of her husband, perhaps the president with the worst luck in the past few decades. And above all, it would be very poorly received that the wife of a sitting president was a candidate. Regardless of how good her profile was.

[T]he conclusions aren't clear. There is no strong pre-candidate for the PAN. There is a list to watch in anticipation of the broader climate catching up, to see which circumstances emerge and who is the adequate person within the PAN. And then to see if they have any possibility of winning the election.
I've never gotten the feeling that Zavala is overly ambitious, but she is a widely admired, likeable figure. It'll be interesting to see if the PAN, sorely lacking in star power, tries to find a role for her in public life after Calderón's term. I agree that a presidential run in 2012 is out of the question, but she's young, so she could still play a big role down the line. Then again, much of what is likeable about her could disappear once she's held up to the more unrelenting scrutiny that comes with a presidential candidacy. I also think the residual goodwill that comes from following Marta Sahagún will diminish of she stays in public life, whether as a candidate or in some other form.

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