Analysts from the OECD, like most of their counterparts elsewhere, are predicting a long, slow recovery: 2.7 percent growth in 2010, followed by 4 percent in 2011. As the article points out, this means that Mexico won't return to its pre-crisis growth rate (dated to September 2008) until 2012. Just as worrying, the jobless rate will remain above 6 percent for that entire lapse.
Given that the 6 percent will also be accompanied by very high rates of underemployment and informal employment, and Calderón seems intent on making this the social development half of his presidency, this would seem to be a fertile ground for government innovations in the informal sector.
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