Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Reaction to AMLO's Announcement

Leo Zuckermann agrees that AMLO is definitely running. He adds that the rhetorical approach was the same as always in his Sunday rollout, but his chief target was unexpected:
AMLO redirected his missiles at the man he considers his new enemy: Enrique Peña Nieto. And it's because the mafia that controls the country already decided that the Mexican State Governor will be the next president.
He also added that AMLO managed to surround himself with a lot of respected intellects, including that of Rogelio Ramírez de la O, his economic advisor in the 2006 campaign. I find that a bit disappointing. I'd have thought that most of the intellectually honest, straightforward analysts who'd supported him in the past would have been so offended by his anti-democratic tactics over the past three years that they would have found a more deserving champion.

I remain convinced that AMLO's chances are nil; he crested in 2006 (though a few months before the election), and even then he didn't have enough votes to pull it off. Since then, he probably scared off millions of erstwhile supporters with his turn toward radicalism over the past three years, presumably without having turned a whole lot of people his way. Furthermore, an Ebrard candidacy and a divided left looms over anything. I guess the bet for el Peje's team is that Ebrard will stand aside, the economic circumstances will continue to punish anyone representing the status quo, and Peña Nieto can be effectively tarred as status quo despite coming from an opposition party. That just seems like an impossible needle to thread.

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