Sunday, November 29, 2009

Explaining Immigration Declines

Reporting from Pedro Escobedo, Querétaro, Excélsior says that the biggest reason that US-bound immigration has dropped isn't stricter border enforcement or the job market in the States, but rather groups like the Zetas preying on immigrants.

The premise is plausible, but it still seems far more likely that the economy is a better explanation. After all, even if there is a greater organized-crime risk for Central American immigrants sneaking through Mexico, the trip has always been dangerous. The one factor that has unquestionably changed recently is the horrible economy in the US.

2 comments:

David Agren said...

I went to the Senate a few weeks back and one lawmaker went as far as to say that kidnapping migrants is now the second-biggest source of income for organized crime. That sounds a bit rich, but there definitely is a problem since migrants won't denounce crimes against and officials in some parts of the country show a crushing indifference toward launching investigations.

The whole branching out of groups like the Zetas into other "businesses" is interesting. One PAN lawmaker took it as a sign that the cartels main business was being hurt. I'm not so sure ...

pc said...

The Zetas have definitely been more entrepreneurial here in Torreon, there's been a lot more car jacking and kidnapping and extortion (attributed to them) since they arrived here. As far as why, I hear lots of different explanations. One is what youre saying, that it's because drug flow has been interrupted. Other people say it's just looking for new sources of income, and doesn't have a lot to do with the government's policy.