Competing Polls

Milenio ran a couple of competing and quite contradictory polls yesterday (at least their website did), one from María de las Heras and another from Gabiente de Comunicación Estratégica. The first shows the PRI with a five-point lead, 35 to 30 percent, in voter preference over the PAN, with the PRD lagging behind at 15 percent. The latter poll shows the PRI with 35 percent, nine points ahead of the PAN. The PRD clocks in at 14 percent. When unlikely voters are trimmed out, the PRI's lead shrinks to eight, 39 to 31 percent. Gabiente estimates that such a result would result in 237 deputies for the PRI, versus 148 for the PAN, which is to say, a disaster for Calderón and a huge triumph for the PRI. However, most polls are closer to the one from María de las Heras, which indicates a narrower PRI victory.