Friday, April 3, 2009

Firing Back

According to Manlio Fabio Beltrones, the PAN "supposedly" won the elections in 2006. The "supposedly", of course, refers to the fraud alleged by the pejistas. One of the big reasons that belief in a fraud was never widespread was the early recognition of Calderón as the winner by PRI heavyweights (of course the absence of any evidence supporting the fraud theory didn't hurt), so this comes across a bit like a retroactive retraction of support.

More directly, Beltrones' comments are a response to the negative campaign from the PAN, which has had great success in linking the PRI to drug traffickers. I don't think Beltrones remark has much potential as a broader narrative; it's an issue that has been settled in the mind of most Mexicans' for two years. For those who are still unsure of the 2006 elections, well they weren't going to vote for the PAN in any case. Who switches their vote to the PRI because Beltrones is casting doubt on Calderón's victory? In contrast, linking the PRI to the drug traffickers offers an indication of how the party would govern once in power, and softens its support among the middle class and independent voters whose defection from the PAN is largely responsible for the PRI's lead in the polls.

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