Are We Sure about That?

Michael Crowley has written twice today about the swine flu, calling it "much ado about not much" and saying that "people don't understand the flu". Obviously, the perspective is a bit different in Mexico, but it seems like an odd time to making that case. The WHO raised its threat level to 5 (out of 6) today, and the organization's director said, "It really is all of humanity that is under threat in a pandemic." Also, contradicting one of the articles he links, Excélsior is reporting that the WHO has confirmed 148 cases of swine flu, not 79. That number is almost certainly higher, too, as it includes only 26 confirmed cases in Mexico. Obviously we all hope that it turns out that our fears are not justified by subsequent events, and later we'll have time to analyze if the WHO and the media made too much of the bug, but it's a bit early to be definitively drawing the conclusion that they did. 

Also, I'd missed this, but ex-DF mayor and AMLO pal Manuel Camacho was released from the hospital today having been admitted on Thursday with flu-like symptoms. No word on whether or not he was suffering from swine flu. 

Update: Two more examples from Crowley today, plus another one from Michelle Cottle. Crowley's posts are based on swine flu survivors in London and Washington, while Cottle's is based on the fact that her daughter was sick a few weeks ago but survived (seriously). I repeat: my perspective in Mexico is surely quite different from theirs in Washington. I can imagine hordes of bureaucrats running around in a panic, and in such a scenario, a little levity is surely needed. At the same time, highlighting the existence of three individual survivors is just a categorically unserious approach to this. No one is saying that the flu is going to kill everyone it infects.  Indeed, if only 10 percent of those infected succumb, that would make it far worse than anything that anyone is imagining today. Furthermore, there are survivors of every disease, from ebola to AIDS. Does that mean we shouldn't take them seriously either?

Again, we all hope that our anxiousness turns out to be unfounded, but as the flu is still unfolding, I don't think anyone should be calling for the populace to take it less seriously. At least no one who's not a respected epidemiologist.