Really Bad News

1) The IMF says that Mexico will be the country most affected by the crisis, with a contraction of 3.5 percent his year, and inflation of 4.8 percent. Next year, the economy will begin its recovery with 1 percent growth. The big question about the recovery policies of Calderón has been when that recovery will start. If the American and Mexican economies start to bounce back later this year and early next, then everything should be OK. On the other hand, if the recovery is slower in coming, then:

[The Mexican] economy would be in an unsustainable situation, but the government will have already spent all of its reserves and taken out loans to sustain the peso artificially. The crisis in the productive sector and in the population would be much deeper and the official gamble will have been incorrect.

And all hell will break loose.

2) Revenue from oil exports dropped by 60 percent, thanks to declining production and cratering oil prices.