Two Pieces on Mexico in WPR

Here's Patrick Burns with a positive dispatch from Juárez, and here's Joshua Kirschke on the program announced last week to curb violence along the border.

The Juárez article paints the picture of a town immeasurably safer than a few weeks ago (although the drop in murders may well be temporary, and if we are to believe Bajo Reserva from last week, it is at the expense of some serious human rights violations):

Following a spate of brutal killings early this year, media reports depicted Juarez as a war zone, a city on the verge of a humanitarian crisis. But while gun battles were all too frequent in 2008 and in early 2009, the violence has now subsided dramatically. In January and February, the city averaged 10 murders per day. The total so far for all of March is less than 10.

One reason for the decrease is the federal security forces that have poured into the city. Today in Juarez, 5,000 army troops and 2,000 federal police patrol the streets, together constituting more than five times the size of the city police force. Additionally, the newly inducted police chief is an army general, as are many of the top decision makers.

So the local police was/is about 1,300 strong? That's pretty darn small for a town of 1.5 million. Philadelphia, which is about the same size but with nothing like Juárez's criminal history, has about 6,900 cops.

Also, the concern about the short-lived nature of the Juárez success is warranted, but I don't think that a spike in violence after the army moves on would invalidate the present drop in violence. To someone living in Juárez, a six-month respite from followed by a return to stratospheric levels of violence is preferable the perpetual existence of said violence. Yes, it's a short-term strategy, but it's still worthwhile, and I hope the federal government is examining the reasons why the Juárez deployment worked so well in reducing the violence.