Polling from the firm Berumen appearing in El Universal today revealed what is either a sea change in the electoral calculus this summer or an extreme outlier. As a glance at the graphic to my left indicates, the level of support for the PRI dropped from just under 40 percent to just over 30 percent, a decline of 9.6 percent in a month. PAN support went from 25.1 percent to 27.4 percent, while the proportion of PRD supporters slipped from 15.4 to 12.2 percent. The number of undecided voters leapt up by close to 10 percent. Absent some external shock, a 10 percent drop for a party in one month is hard to believe. The only thing that could explain the shift would be the PAN's recent campaign against the PRI, in which the former linked the latter to drug gangs and questioned its commitment to Calderón's government. I suppose that's possible, but I'm skeptical that the handful of comments from Germán Martínez would show such overwhelming results in such a short period of time.(Graphic courtesy of El Universal)
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