More Detail on the History of the Mexican Truck Dispute Than I Am Capable of Offering

Click here for Noel Maurer's rundown. Here's his conclusion:

Now one of three things will happen. (1) the Obama administration will conduct a simultaneous negotiation with Mexico and Congress and the program will eventually be restarted, in all its half-assed lack of glory; (2) the Obama administration will subtly and quietly call the Mexicans bluff, betting that the Calderón administration really doesn't want to risk losing NAFTA; or (3) the U.S. takes Mexico to Chapter 20 arbitration, in order to stall for time. What won't happen is a tit-for-tat unravelling of free trade.

I bet on number (1). Senator Dorgan won't want to hold up the Administration's other goals ... except maybe, you know, agricultural subsidies ... only if the Mexicans are smart, they'll sucker-punch North Dakota. In 2008, the state exported $199 million to Mexico, of which $103 million was agricultural. I can't dig much further, but the Mexican government can, right here. Hint: follow the potatoes.

Still, even if Mexico can't target North Dakota, for its own reasons, I don't think this augurs a trade war. Or even a trade skirmish. The U.S. is being ridiculous and has been since the Bush administration lost its nerve in 2004, but NAFTA safeguards will keep this from escalating ... as long as both countries act in goodwill. Which shows every sign of being the case.