Holiday Fun

Today's a federal holiday in Mexico, thanks to the birth of Benito Juárez 203 years ago. Let's celebrate by taking a look at the presidential horse race graphic that El Universal has set up. (I don't know how long it'll be up, but click on the link that says Los Suspirantes Gráfico halfway down the above-linked page on the left side.) It has Mexico State's Enrique Peña Nieto in first place, followed closely by PRI president Beatriz Paredes and professional firebrand and umbrage-taker Andrés Manuel López Obrador. In the next tier are Marcelo Ebrard, Secretary of Education Josefina Vázquez, PAN chief Germán Martínez, and PRD president Jesús Ortega. Santiago Creel and Manlio Fabio Beltrones are bringing up the rear, along with the undetermined dark horse candidate. 

A couple of points: unless the PAN can unite behind someone with some charisma in the dark horse spot, the party is unlikely to continue its control of Los Pinos for six more years. None of the possibilities mentioned seems likely to win an election against Peña Nieto and Ebrard. Second, if Andrés Manuel López Obrador plays a significant role, it'll be as a spoiler taking votes from Ebrard. He's a bad bet to win the PRD nomination, and even if he runs under the PT-Convergencia banner, I don't see him getting more than 15 percent of the votes. (I'm pulling that number off the top of my head, so I am open to the possibility of being significantly off, but even if he catches every break possible, there's no way he gets within screaming distance of his performance in 2006.) But that 15 percent (or 10 or whatever) is going to draw from a PRD candidate's vote total more than any other party's, so Peña Nieto should be looking for ways to encourage López Obrador to run.