Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Mexico State Still Ávila's to Lose

Heading into the final debate before next Sunday's election, Eruviel Ávila's lead is growing, according to El Universal: they give him 59 percent of the electorate, a five-point bump from last month. His lead has grown from 29 points to 32. All signs point to a big win, even if Bravo Meno bails and tries to shift his support to Encinas.

All of this has me thinking: how bad would Ávila have to screw up tonight's debate to lose the race? What is the worst thing he could say and still win? I bet he could express support for Gustavo Díaz Ordaz's presidency without losing. He might be able to mention his wealthy compas in the mountains of Sinaloa and still squeeze by. If he congratulates the US soccer team on their victory over Panama and wishes them good luck on Saturday night? That might be a bridge too far.


Michael Lettieri said...

It's unbelievable the amount of campaign material the PRI's pushed out for this - I was in Oaxaca over the weekend and I'm pretty sure I saw Eruviel stickers on cars there. It's definitely all over the place.

By the way, not that it shows anything new or extraordinary (and I am always suspicious about how clips like this are edited), have you seen this video:

pc said...

I just got that in my email box this morning. Pretty crazy. I remember talking to a group of people at a PRI-arranged rally in Torreon one time, asking (out of curiosity) why they are all gathered. One person answered a bridge was being opened (though there was no new bridge anywhere near where we were) while another simultaneously someone else said a hospital. Sigh.

I've not been in Mexico since last year, but from here I definitely get the sense that this is both a throwback to the old old dinosaur PRI electoral machine and a preview of what we will see next year. Sigh again.