Buendía y Laredo has some new polling on the 2012 presidential race. It places Enrique Peña Nieto above the pack with 52 percent support, compared to 32 for Ebrard and 21 for Santiago Creel. (I'm not sure if the Ebrard score is a typo or a product of a funky way of tallying support, such as an average of different candidate combinations. However, elsewhere they say that Ebrard's support swings between 17 and 24 percent.) The poll also reports that 44 percent of those surveyed said that their vote will depend on a candidate, compared to 43 percent who always vote for one of the three major parties. In other words, a big swing vote. That could spell bad news for the PRI if Peña Nieto somehow loses the nomination, as his likely replacements (Beatriz Paredes and Manlio Fabio Beltrones) were only at around 30 percent. The generic party preferences are also interesting in this regard; at 33 percent, the PRI is 8 points beneath its recent ByL high in September of 2009.
In other news, I'm preparing my reaction for when Peña Nieto's lead inevitably shrinks: [Frenzied epiphany: you mean favorable opinion polls two years before an election don't guarantee victory?!?!?!]